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The Bullet Holes You Don’t See

May 18

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During World War II, military analysts faced a puzzling problem. Fighter planes were returning from combat missions covered in bullet holes, especially on the wings, tail, and outer fuselage. The immediate reaction was to reinforce those heavily damaged areas with extra armor.

However, statistician Abraham Wald noticed something critical: these planes had survived despite the damage. The areas with few or no bullet holes, like the engine and cockpit - were actually the most vulnerable. Planes hit in those spots never made it back. The military had been focusing on the wrong data.

This example perfectly illustrates survivorship bias - the tendency to focus only on what survives while ignoring what doesn’t. For startup founders, this bias can be a hidden trap, especially when it comes to customer discovery and early traction.

Survivorship Bias in Startups: What It Means for You

When launching a product, it’s natural to focus on the customers who love what you’re building. The early adopters who sign up, engage, and give positive feedback feel like validation of your vision. It’s encouraging and motivating to hear praise and see some traction.

However, if attention is paid only to these “survivors,” it can lead to blind spots. The users who churn, those who never activate, or the ones who simply disappear after signing up-they represent the missing data. These are the “planes” that didn’t come back, and their absence holds critical insights.

Ignoring this group risks reinforcing features and strategies that only serve a small segment of your audience, while overlooking the barriers preventing wider adoption.

Why Founders Tend to Fall Into This Trap

It’s easy to gravitate toward positive feedback. Early users are often enthusiastic and willing to overlook flaws. They might even be more forgiving because they’re excited about your product’s potential.

But early adopters aren’t representative of the broader market. If the goal is sustainable growth, it’s essential to understand why most users don’t stick around. Building solely for the vocal minority can create a product that doesn’t resonate with the majority.

The Real Opportunity Lies with Those Who Left

The users who churned or never fully engaged are not failures - they’re valuable sources of feedback. They reveal where your product is confusing, where it fails to deliver value, or where it simply doesn’t fit into users’ lives.

By understanding their reasons for leaving, founders can identify and fix the real problems that block growth and adoption.

How to Avoid Survivorship Bias in Customer Discovery

Here are practical steps to ensure you’re learning from all users-not just the ones who stayed:

Reach out to users who dropped off or churned.
Ask them directly what didn’t work or what stopped them from continuing.
Analyze user behavior data carefully.
Identify where users commonly abandon the product or fail to complete key actions.
Ask tough questions.
Don’t just ask what users like; ask what almost made them quit or what confused them.
Segment your users.
Group users into categories such as power users, one-time users, and non-activators to understand different behaviors.
Conduct exit interviews or surveys.
When users cancel or leave, collect feedback to learn why.

Facing the Hard Truths

Receiving negative feedback can be uncomfortable, but it’s essential for growth. Every piece of criticism is an opportunity to improve. Listening to users who leave helps uncover hidden flaws and strengthens the product.

Building Beyond the Survivors

It’s tempting to focus on what’s already working, but the real challenge is to identify and fix the weak points. Like the WWII planes, the parts that don’t show obvious damage may be the most critical.

By addressing these “invisible” issues, startups can build products that survive and thrive in the long run.

Actionable Steps for Founders

Make a list of users who churned or never activated and reach out to them for feedback.
Dive into your analytics to find where users drop off.
Set up exit surveys to capture reasons for cancellation.
Talk to at least a few users who left and ask what was missing or confusing.
Share these insights with your team and use them to improve.

Final Thoughts

Building a startup is a tough journey, but avoiding survivorship bias can give you a significant edge. The next time you celebrate your early wins, remember to look for the missing bullet holes - the users who didn’t stick around.

Their feedback holds the key to building a product that truly meets the needs of a broader audience and achieves lasting success.

If you have experiences or insights about learning from users who left, feel free to share. The more founders exchange these lessons, the stronger our community becomes.

Ready to uncover your startup’s hidden weak spots? Start by listening to the voices you might be missing. That’s where the real breakthroughs happen.