During World War II, military analysts faced a puzzling problem. Fighter planes were returning from combat missions covered in bullet holes, especially on the wings, tail, and outer fuselage. The immediate reaction was to reinforce those heavily damaged areas with extra armor.
However, statistician Abraham Wald noticed something critical: these planes had survived despite the damage. The areas with few or no bullet holes, like the engine and cockpit - were actually the most vulnerable. Planes hit in those spots never made it back. The military had been focusing on the wrong data. This example perfectly illustrates survivorship bias - the tendency to focus only on what survives while ignoring what doesn’t. For startup founders, this bias can be a hidden trap, especially when it comes to customer discovery and early traction. Survivorship Bias in Startups: What It Means for YouWhen launching a product, it’s natural to focus on the customers who love what you’re building. The early adopters who sign up, engage, and give positive feedback feel like validation of your vision. It’s encouraging and motivating to hear praise and see some traction. However, if attention is paid only to these “survivors,” it can lead to blind spots. The users who churn, those who never activate, or the ones who simply disappear after signing up-they represent the missing data. These are the “planes” that didn’t come back, and their absence holds critical insights. Ignoring this group risks reinforcing features and strategies that only serve a small segment of your audience, while overlooking the barriers preventing wider adoption. Why Founders Tend to Fall Into This TrapIt’s easy to gravitate toward positive feedback. Early users are often enthusiastic and willing to overlook flaws. They might even be more forgiving because they’re excited about your product’s potential. But early adopters aren’t representative of the broader market. If the goal is sustainable growth, it’s essential to understand why most users don’t stick around. Building solely for the vocal minority can create a product that doesn’t resonate with the majority. The Real Opportunity Lies with Those Who LeftThe users who churned or never fully engaged are not failures - they’re valuable sources of feedback. They reveal where your product is confusing, where it fails to deliver value, or where it simply doesn’t fit into users’ lives. By understanding their reasons for leaving, founders can identify and fix the real problems that block growth and adoption. How to Avoid Survivorship Bias in Customer DiscoveryHere are practical steps to ensure you’re learning from all users-not just the ones who stayed:
Facing the Hard TruthsReceiving negative feedback can be uncomfortable, but it’s essential for growth. Every piece of criticism is an opportunity to improve. Listening to users who leave helps uncover hidden flaws and strengthens the product. Building Beyond the SurvivorsIt’s tempting to focus on what’s already working, but the real challenge is to identify and fix the weak points. Like the WWII planes, the parts that don’t show obvious damage may be the most critical. By addressing these “invisible” issues, startups can build products that survive and thrive in the long run. Actionable Steps for Founders
Final ThoughtsBuilding a startup is a tough journey, but avoiding survivorship bias can give you a significant edge. The next time you celebrate your early wins, remember to look for the missing bullet holes - the users who didn’t stick around. Their feedback holds the key to building a product that truly meets the needs of a broader audience and achieves lasting success. If you have experiences or insights about learning from users who left, feel free to share. The more founders exchange these lessons, the stronger our community becomes. Ready to uncover your startup’s hidden weak spots? Start by listening to the voices you might be missing. That’s where the real breakthroughs happen. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Startup-Side , share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe.
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Saturday, May 17, 2025
The Bullet Holes You Don’t See
Wednesday, May 14, 2025
Revenue-Driven Mindset
Welcome to Startup-Side !Shashank Rajurkar recently moved you from another platform to Startup-Side , hosted on Substack. New posts will be automatically delivered to you via email or via the Substack app.
Why Mindset Beats Tactics in Today’s Startup WorldHere’s the hard truth: 42% of startups fail because they build stuff nobody wants. Yet, most founders still obsess over product features instead of asking if people will actually pay. Traditional tactics-surveys, focus groups-rely on what people say, not what they do. But what if the real game-changer isn’t a new tool, but a new way of thinking about customer discovery? The Science Behind Why People Buy1. The Brain’s “Buy Button”Neuroscience shows the brain’s ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) lights up when we see real value. If your product doesn’t solve an urgent problem, this “buy button” stays off matter how slick your pitch. Startup Lesson: 2. Pain Beats GainThe amygdala, our fear center, is more sensitive to loss than gain. That’s why customers stick to old solutions - they’re avoiding pain. Startup Lesson: 3. Dopamine Drives LoyaltyWhen people pay, their brains release dopamine. This “reward chemical” makes them more likely to stick around and become loyal users. Startup Lesson: The Revenue-Driven Mindset in ActionFrom “Build It” to “Earn First”Old-school founders ask, “Would you buy this?” Revenue-driven founders ask customers to vote with their wallets. When people pay, they’re invested. The 4 Pillars of Revenue-Driven Mindset1. Embrace Friction-First Validation: 2. Pre-Sell to Build Anticipation: 3. Build Trust Through Micro-Commitments: 4. Iterate with Real Revenue Data: The Future: AI, Community, and Ethics
Real Startup Wins
How You Can Apply This Mindset
The Bottom LineThe future belongs to founders who treat customer discovery as a science-one rooted in how the brain works. Focus on real revenue, not vanity metrics. When you ask people to pay, you’re not just validating your idea - you’re tapping into the neuroscience of trust, value, and loyalty. As Steve Blank says: In 2025 and beyond, revenue isn’t just validation - it’s brain science in action. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Startup-Side , share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe.
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Sunday, June 9, 2024
FIFI FW Discount Tickets for WordPress Subscribers
@FANLuxuryBrand
Monday, February 19, 2024
FREE Backyard Chicken Summit
Some of you may know me as the person behind the blog Bitchin' Chickens or from Facebook and Instagram.
My goal over the last 5+ years has been to educate small flock keepers to build capacity and improve the health outcomes of their birds.
I'm touching base to share something that will help backyard chicken keepers like you raise your best flock ever.
The Backyard Chickens Summit is a free 3-day event that will help you raise healthy chickens with less confusion and more confidence. As far as I can tell, this is the only event of its kind.
This three day virtual conference (March 4-6) will feature 23 speakers on all things chickens. I will be presenting about Chicken Health Checks and First Aid Kits on the first day.
Each day will be packed with amazing speakers who are ready to help you be a better chicken keeper. We also have a private pop-up Facebook group where you can connect with other backyard chicken keepers, ask the speakers questions, win prizes, and more! Last year the group was super active, and we had so much fun in there!
The summit is absolutely free to attend, but you can choose to grab the Backyard Chicken Keepers Toolkit for bonus resources, instant access to all presentations, and an upgraded event experience.
The Toolkit is currently available at a special price, and it will disappear for good once the summit is over, so start thinking about it now! You'll get all the details and a special offer once you grab your free ticket here!
Please forward this to anyone who you think might benefit from attending the Summit.
If you'd like to be removed from this list let me know.
I hope to see you there, Claire
Facebook page Bitchin' Chickens Farm: https://www.facebook.com/tophatchickens/
YouTube: @Bitchin.Chickens
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bitchinchickensfarm/
Jumping the curve
Why the boldest founders don’t just ride the S-curve—they leap to the next one before everyone else sees the drop coming. ͏ ͏ ͏ ...
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